Estimation: The Islamic State – Doomed Legion of the Lost and Drifting

isisIslamic State fighters lift their rifles and shout victory slogans. (Al Jazeera)

Army of the lost and drifting
The Islamic State stands no chance of survival. It now has almost every single regional and international player as an enemy. Its ranks are filled with the lost and drifting of the world, who seek easy solutions to their miserable lives.

The Middle East as a whole, though, and the situations in Iraq and Syria in particular, do not allow for such illusive way out of one´s personal identity crisis. Soon, this army of the hopeless will turn into an army of the disillusioned and erode.

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Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon

assir            Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir in a press conference before his escape. (MTV)

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon – Part 1

Summary
Fears of escalating violence are rising in the Levant, after three car bombs struck Lebanon, the tiny neighbour of Israel and Syria, in just one week. Will that change the current situation in Lebanon basically? We don´t think so –  but several other factors could.

Car bombings in Beirut and Tripoli
Thursday, August 15, a car bomb went off in the Beirut neighbourhood of Dahiyeh, a stronghold of the Lebanese Shiite organisation Hezbollah. At least 24 people were killed and more than 120 wounded. The perpetrators remain at large, though the basic and most rational assumption is, Syria-related Sunni extremists are responsible.

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