Militants in Iraq show their readiness to fight on May 18, 2013. (Al-Jazeera)
Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 5
Iraq heating up Iraq is the most uncertain variable in any current estimation.
Conflicts are heating up in the country again, and gains of Sunnite fighters in Syria have given Sunnites in Iraq motivation to act against the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by which they feel being discriminated against.
Iraq has the longest border with Syria of all neighbouring countries, running from Turkey to Jordan. With the US not anymore in position to play into internal Iraqi politics, the international community is fearful of future developments in Iraq.
Once allies, now foes: Turkish PM Erdogan and Syrian President Assad. (Al-Jazeera)
Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 3
Assad does not need to negotiate
Questions arise why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad does not want to negotiate with the opposition and is so adamant. Our reading is simple: Given the odds he was facing since two years, his stance did work relatively well for him, and now he does not have to negotiate anymore seriously, though he might send representatives to a future conference.
The strategic balance in Syria is shifting significantly to his side, and outside powers are becoming even more reluctant to hinder him go after his foes.