Islamic State fighters lift their rifles and shout victory slogans. (Al Jazeera)
Army of the lost and drifting
The Islamic State stands no chance of survival. It now has almost every single regional and international player as an enemy. Its ranks are filled with the lost and drifting of the world, who seek easy solutions to their miserable lives.
The Middle East as a whole, though, and the situations in Iraq and Syria in particular, do not allow for such illusive way out of one´s personal identity crisis. Soon, this army of the hopeless will turn into an army of the disillusioned and erode.
Will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet Iran´s President Hassan Rouhani at the World Economic Forum in Davos? (World Economic Forum)
Indications of new settlements for the Middle East are peeking around the corner. From our point of view those potential developments are logic, because everything else would bring about chaos over the whole region. Chaos that could easily spread like wildfire and get out of hand. No major player can afford that.
Hawks can make decisions
On January 17, 2014, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, as reported by the Jerusalem Post, citing Canadian CTV News, he would consider meeting Iran´s President Hassan Rouhani if the latter recognized Israel´s right of existence.
US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed the situation in Syria at a meeting in Paris, on January 13, 2014. (DW-TV)
The international community and regional powers have obviously come to the conclusion not to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in order to ward off a bigger catastrophe in the region. We think the next step is not far: from passive support for the rebels to active support for Assad and his security apparatus against a growing Jihadist movement.
Payback statement by Syria
On January 15, as reported by Reuters and the Lebanese Broadcasting cooperation (LBC), Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said intelligence services of some Western countries opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have visited Damascus to discuss security cooperation.
Militants in Iraq show their readiness to fight on May 18, 2013. (Al-Jazeera)
Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 5
Iraq heating up Iraq is the most uncertain variable in any current estimation.
Conflicts are heating up in the country again, and gains of Sunnite fighters in Syria have given Sunnites in Iraq motivation to act against the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by which they feel being discriminated against.
Iraq has the longest border with Syria of all neighbouring countries, running from Turkey to Jordan. With the US not anymore in position to play into internal Iraqi politics, the international community is fearful of future developments in Iraq.
A Syrian army tank firing rounds in the battle for Qusayr. (Al-Jazeera)
Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 1
The battlefield situation in Qusayr, Syria, remains unclear. Some circumstantial conclusion can be drawn from news reports. The recent overall coverage of developments by pro-opposition media outside the country is very telling, just as reactions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) command.
Realities reloaded for the media
Since some weeks, pro-opposition media in Europe and the US are tuning down their war drums. Western commentators, who tried to push through an agenda of regime change and intervention for two years now, did fall relatively silent when it comes to analysis.
Michael Stürmer: “Wie kann der Westen, ohne Assad zu retten, Syrien in einem Stück erhalten?”
Vermutlich gar nicht.
Angesichts dessen, was mit einem zerfallenden Syrien der gesamten Levante und übrigens Europa droht (Terrorismus), sind die steten Rufe nach Intervention und Waffenlieferungen nicht zu verstehen.
Man fragt sich wirklich, wer die Politiker, die dergleichen fordern, in dieser Hinsicht berät. Solche Rufe zeugen von völliger Unkenntnis der Geschichte und Kultur der Region und Mentalität der Menschen.
Syrian President Assad does not represent the whole government.
Ambassador Ford’s comments point in the same direction as Russian Prime Minister Medvedev’s some weeks ago: Preserve the state and force Assad to quit sooner or later. Probably later, giving him enough time to strike a deal with the somewhat secular opposition and eliminate the Islamists.
Still chances are good, Assad will stay for years if he doesn’t fall by the hand of an assassin.
Die Einschätzung nimmt Bezug auf auf den Artikel “Assad’s Löwinnen” (Spiegel Online), dessen Tenor war, die Regierung von Syrien Präsident Bashar al-Assad werfe nun die letzten Kräfte ins Feld (“Volkstum”). Wir sehen das völlig anders.
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Einschätzung: In Syrien sieht es aus unserer Sicht danach aus, als ob sich die Armee auf einen Generalangriff gegen die Aufständischen vorbereitet, dafür sämtliche kampferprobten Soldaten von vernachlässigbaren Position abzieht (Checkpoints) und an anderen Stellen zusammenzieht.