Tag Archives: Bashar al-Assad

Estimation: 2014 – Year of turnarounds in the Middle East (Part 2)

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hariri-netherlands-aFormer Prime Minister Saad Hariri stunned his fellow countrymen with his readiness to build a cabinet together with his foe Hezbollah. (DW-TV)

Summary
An explosive and dangerous mixture of war and several security incidents has accumulated in the Levant. Lebanon is seen by many in the “eye of the storm”. We don’t think such is on the horizon for the time being.

With its engagement in Syria, Iran has carved out chances to broaden its influence in the region. It cannot dominate, but it has manoeuvred itself in position to force others into making significant concessions. A new balance of power is being established that could safe the region from catastrophe.

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Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon

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chemattackPeople on the floor after an alleged gas attack by the Syrian government. (Al Jazeera)

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon – Part 3 (final)

Today, Sunnites in Lebanon still have no forceful leader with a military background, who could inspire them in a region, where political parties often run militias to promote their cause.

Among the few cards, Lebanese Sunnites could play against Hezbollah, would be an external Sunnite militant leader to take up arms successfully against the Shiite party. But such a man is not in sight.

The last ambitious figure, Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir, was chased away in June in a  combined operation of the Lebanese army and – most likely – Hezbollah.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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maher-basharScreenshot of an undated video showing Maher and Bashar al-Assad. (France24)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – (Part 6, final)

The assumption
So where do we go from here? Our estimations are based on the assumption that regional and international powers have come to the conclusion not to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in order to ward off a bigger catastrophe in the region.

Is he going to restore his power? Difficult to say.

The balance of power seems to have tipped, yes. But neither is the war won nor will he have the free hand, he had before. Assad is heavily indebted to Hezbollah, Iran and Russia now.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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Iraq heating up again

Militants in Iraq show their readiness to fight on May 18, 2013. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 5

Iraq heating up
Iraq is the most uncertain variable in any current estimation.

Conflicts are heating up in the country again, and gains of Sunnite fighters in Syria have given Sunnites in Iraq motivation to act against the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by which they feel being discriminated against.

Iraq has the longest border with Syria of all neighbouring countries, running from Turkey to Jordan. With the US not anymore in position to play into internal Iraqi politics, the international community is fearful of future developments in Iraq.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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protest against king abdullah of jordanOpposition groups protest in Jordan on October 5, 2012. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 4

Jordan´s strains
Jordan feels the strains of the Syrian situation as well. Throughout its history, the kingdom did steadily and carefully adjust to changing situations, constantly balancing pressure from bigger Arab countries and the West.

Though the kingdom gave Syrian opposition fighters training ground on limited scales, it did resist demands from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to heavily arm the Syrian opposition.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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allies to foesOnce allies, now foes: Turkish PM Erdogan and Syrian President Assad. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 3

Assad does not need to negotiate
Questions arise why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad does not want to negotiate with the opposition and is so adamant. Our reading is simple: Given the odds he was facing since two years, his stance did work relatively well for him, and now he does not have to negotiate anymore seriously, though he might send representatives to a future conference.

The strategic balance in Syria is shifting significantly to his side, and outside powers are becoming even more reluctant to hinder him go after his foes.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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derserted street in TripoliA deserted street in Tripoli during fighting between Alawites and Sunnites. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 2

Not happy with Hezbollah
People in Lebanon – many Shiites among them – are not content and even angry about Hezbollah´s role in Syria. But they can’t or don’t want to get rid of the organization for several reasons.

Many Shiites depend on Hezbollah, and the others just have no serious means to confront the organisation or are bound in political affiliations. Though, the latter may be in flux as some recent moves of Christian leader Michel Aoun suggest, who signed a Memorandung of Understanding with Hezbollah.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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Qusayr snapshotA Syrian army tank firing rounds in the battle for Qusayr. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 1

Qusayr
The battlefield situation in Qusayr, Syria, remains unclear. Some circumstantial  conclusion can be drawn from news reports. The recent overall coverage of developments by pro-opposition media outside the country is very telling, just as reactions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) command.

Realities reloaded for the media
Since some weeks, pro-opposition media in Europe and the US are tuning down their war drums. Western commentators, who tried to push through an agenda of regime change and intervention for two years now, did fall relatively silent when it comes to analysis.

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ISRAEL/SYRIA – Warning Syria (Jerusalem Post)

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mount hermonScreenshot taken from JN1.TV

DISQUS comment on: “Warning Syria” (Jerusalem Post)

“Following reported Israeli attacks, forces seem to be concentrating to threaten relative quiet that has characterized Syrian border.” (JPost)

Estimation: It is difficult to believe that the Assad government will open another front now.

The Syrian government – by all public accounts – seems to stand at the beginning of the winning street.

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LEBANON – Hezbollah’s Russian Connection

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Hassan NasrallahHezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah giving a speech on May 9.

DISQUS Comment on: “Hezbollah’s Russian Connection” (Al-Monitor/Jean Aziz)

— “Nasrallah has finally assured his opponents that he is ready for anything now or anytime”

It seems very unlikely he is really ready to go to war and open the box of Pandora. Hassan Nasrallah is too clever a man to subject the whole Levant to a regional conflict.

The next war between Hezbollah and Israel will be the last shoot-out for long, and one of them will fall or at least be severely damaged for a long time. Both sides know that. Israel will turn southern Lebanon into an underground parking lot.

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