Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon

tripoliMen are trying to extinguish fires after the explosion in Tripoli. (Euronews)

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon – Part 2

Hezbollah, rebels or a third party?
The double car bombing in Tripoli might well be the work of Syrian rebels or their Lebanese sympathizers. Though, in Lebanon many national and international players have plenty of reasons on a daily base to go after on another.

We think, Hezbollah does not need to show its strength, and surely it is not served well with an angry Sunnite community at home, consequently playing into the hands of an alleged Sunnite militant strategy mentioned in the first part of this estimation.

Retaliation into no man´s land
The morning before the deadly car bombing in Tripoli, Israel did attack a target in Naameh, south of Beirut, with an retaliatory air strike. In the evening before, four rockets had been fired from Lebanon towards Israel without causing damage.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

Iraq heating up again

Militants in Iraq show their readiness to fight on May 18, 2013. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 5

Iraq heating up
Iraq is the most uncertain variable in any current estimation.

Conflicts are heating up in the country again, and gains of Sunnite fighters in Syria have given Sunnites in Iraq motivation to act against the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by which they feel being discriminated against.

Iraq has the longest border with Syria of all neighbouring countries, running from Turkey to Jordan. With the US not anymore in position to play into internal Iraqi politics, the international community is fearful of future developments in Iraq.

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