Tag Archives: Tripoli

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon

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tripoliMen are trying to extinguish fires after the explosion in Tripoli. (Euronews)

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon – Part 2

Hezbollah, rebels or a third party?
The double car bombing in Tripoli might well be the work of Syrian rebels or their Lebanese sympathizers. Though, in Lebanon many national and international players have plenty of reasons on a daily base to go after on another.

We think, Hezbollah does not need to show its strength, and surely it is not served well with an angry Sunnite community at home, consequently playing into the hands of an alleged Sunnite militant strategy mentioned in the first part of this estimation.

Retaliation into no man´s land
The morning before the deadly car bombing in Tripoli, Israel did attack a target in Naameh, south of Beirut, with an retaliatory air strike. In the evening before, four rockets had been fired from Lebanon towards Israel without causing damage.

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Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon

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assir            Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir in a press conference before his escape. (MTV)

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon – Part 1

Summary
Fears of escalating violence are rising in the Levant, after three car bombs struck Lebanon, the tiny neighbour of Israel and Syria, in just one week. Will that change the current situation in Lebanon basically? We don´t think so –  but several other factors could.

Car bombings in Beirut and Tripoli
Thursday, August 15, a car bomb went off in the Beirut neighbourhood of Dahiyeh, a stronghold of the Lebanese Shiite organisation Hezbollah. At least 24 people were killed and more than 120 wounded. The perpetrators remain at large, though the basic and most rational assumption is, Syria-related Sunni extremists are responsible.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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derserted street in TripoliA deserted street in Tripoli during fighting between Alawites and Sunnites. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 2

Not happy with Hezbollah
People in Lebanon – many Shiites among them – are not content and even angry about Hezbollah´s role in Syria. But they can’t or don’t want to get rid of the organization for several reasons.

Many Shiites depend on Hezbollah, and the others just have no serious means to confront the organisation or are bound in political affiliations. Though, the latter may be in flux as some recent moves of Christian leader Michel Aoun suggest, who signed a Memorandung of Understanding with Hezbollah.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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Qusayr snapshotA Syrian army tank firing rounds in the battle for Qusayr. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 1

Qusayr
The battlefield situation in Qusayr, Syria, remains unclear. Some circumstantial  conclusion can be drawn from news reports. The recent overall coverage of developments by pro-opposition media outside the country is very telling, just as reactions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) command.

Realities reloaded for the media
Since some weeks, pro-opposition media in Europe and the US are tuning down their war drums. Western commentators, who tried to push through an agenda of regime change and intervention for two years now, did fall relatively silent when it comes to analysis.

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LIBANON – Zusammenstöße in Tripolis Bezirken Bab al-Tabbaneh und Jabal Mohsen

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Am Nachmittag gewaltsame Zusammenstöße in Tripolis Bezirken Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen. Armee in die Region entsendet, teilweise in Gefechte verwickelt. (lib. Medien)

Einordnung: In Libanons nördlich gelegener Hafenstadt Tripoli grenzen teilweise von Alawiten und Sunniten dominierte Bezirke aneinander. Der überwiegende Teil der Bewohner Tripolis gehört der sunnitischen Richtung des Islam an. Die Minderheit der Alawiten gilt zu großen Teilen als loyal gegenüber der alawitisch dominierten Regierung Syriens.

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