Comment: The Iranian Elephant on the Middle East Table

iran dealSome of the main negotiators of the Iran nuclear interim deal at the table (from left): Russian Foreign Minister of Sergei Lavrov Russia, the EU´s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Cathrin Ashton and Iran´s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. (BBC)

Comment: The Iranian Elephant on the Middle East Table

The US can´t handle everything in the world at the same time. Its focus shifts to the Pacific, away from Europe and the Middle East.

In Syria, Iran has manoeuvred itself into a position allowing it to extract concessions from its foes. It can´t dominate, but now it sits like a huge elephant on the table, in the middle of the region and just won´t go away. Its opponents have to deal with that, and they obviously don´t know how.

Continue reading

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

protest against king abdullah of jordanOpposition groups protest in Jordan on October 5, 2012. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 4

Jordan´s strains
Jordan
feels the strains of the Syrian situation as well. Throughout its history, the kingdom did steadily and carefully adjust to changing situations, constantly balancing pressure from bigger Arab countries and the West.

Though the kingdom gave Syrian opposition fighters training ground on limited scales, it did resist demands from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to heavily arm the Syrian opposition.

Continue reading

Report: Saudis buying Balkan arms for Syrian rebels

Report: Saudis buying Balkan arms for Syrian rebels (AFP/Daily Star)

Background: Weapons trade between the Balkans and the Middle East is established since long. After the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990) large contingents were sold to former Yugoslavia.

Lebanese Forces (LF) tanks and armoured personnel carriers displaying the party’s cross could be seen on CNN during the time of the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s.

U.S. says Assad will lose battle eventually

Comment on: “U.S. says Assad will lose battle eventually” (Daily Star)

Syrian President Assad does not represent the whole government.

Ambassador Ford’s comments point in the same direction as Russian Prime Minister Medvedev’s some weeks ago: Preserve the state and force Assad to quit sooner or later. Probably later, giving him enough time to strike a deal with the somewhat secular opposition and eliminate the Islamists.

Still chances are good, Assad will stay for years if he doesn’t fall by the hand of an assassin.