Comment: The Iranian Elephant on the Middle East Table

iran dealSome of the main negotiators of the Iran nuclear interim deal at the table (from left): Russian Foreign Minister of Sergei Lavrov Russia, the EU´s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Cathrin Ashton and Iran´s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. (BBC)

Comment: The Iranian Elephant on the Middle East Table

The US can´t handle everything in the world at the same time. Its focus shifts to the Pacific, away from Europe and the Middle East.

In Syria, Iran has manoeuvred itself into a position allowing it to extract concessions from its foes. It can´t dominate, but now it sits like a huge elephant on the table, in the middle of the region and just won´t go away. Its opponents have to deal with that, and they obviously don´t know how.

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SYRIA – Comment on “For desperate Syrians, a search for any way out” (Daily Star, 04. February 2013 – David Ignatius)

Comment on “For desperate Syrians, a search for any way out” (Daily Star, 04. February 2013 – David Ignatius)

Arming “paramilitary” forces, which in fact are militias, has rarely been a good idea. They take the knowledge and the arms. Once they got what they wanted, they are loose guns and often the nightmare of their fellow countrymen.

Ordinary people in Syria don’t have an agenda. They want to eat, drink and send their children to school. Life in Syria was not as bad for the majority of people as one might think when now we read about the “dictator” Bashar al-Assad, who was the “President” for ten years before the uprising.

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U.S. says Assad will lose battle eventually

Comment on: “U.S. says Assad will lose battle eventually” (Daily Star)

Syrian President Assad does not represent the whole government.

Ambassador Ford’s comments point in the same direction as Russian Prime Minister Medvedev’s some weeks ago: Preserve the state and force Assad to quit sooner or later. Probably later, giving him enough time to strike a deal with the somewhat secular opposition and eliminate the Islamists.

Still chances are good, Assad will stay for years if he doesn’t fall by the hand of an assassin.

Russia says Assad’s prospects fading

Comment on: “Russia says Assad’s prospects fading” (Daily Star/Reuters)

It is worth noting that PM Medvedev mentions Assad but not the government as a whole or state institutions.

Medvedev’s comments go in line with Russia’s policy on Syria: Strengthen the army, try to facilitate a deal between the Non-Islamist opposition and the government, put down the uprising by force, preserve the country as en entity and convince Assad to step down, once calm has settled.

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