Estimation: 2014 – Year of turnarounds in the Middle East (Part 2)

hariri-netherlands-aFormer Prime Minister Saad Hariri stunned his fellow countrymen with his readiness to build a cabinet together with his foe Hezbollah. (DW-TV)

An explosive and dangerous mixture of war and several security incidents has accumulated in the Levant. Lebanon is seen by many in the “eye of the storm”. We don’t think such is on the horizon for the time being.

With its engagement in Syria, Iran has carved out chances to broaden its influence in the region. It cannot dominate, but it has manoeuvred itself in position to force others into making significant concessions. A new balance of power is being established that could safe the region from catastrophe.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

derserted street in TripoliA deserted street in Tripoli during fighting between Alawites and Sunnites. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 2

Not happy with Hezbollah
People in Lebanon – many Shiites among them – are not content and even angry about Hezbollah´s role in Syria. But they can’t or don’t want to get rid of the organization for several reasons.

Many Shiites depend on Hezbollah, and the others just have no serious means to confront the organisation or are bound in political affiliations. Though, the latter may be in flux as some recent moves of Christian leader Michel Aoun suggest, who signed a Memorandung of Understanding with Hezbollah.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

Qusayr snapshotA Syrian army tank firing rounds in the battle for Qusayr. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 1

The battlefield situation in Qusayr, Syria, remains unclear. Some circumstantial  conclusion can be drawn from news reports. The recent overall coverage of developments by pro-opposition media outside the country is very telling, just as reactions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) command.

Realities reloaded for the media
Since some weeks, pro-opposition media in Europe and the US are tuning down their war drums. Western commentators, who tried to push through an agenda of regime change and intervention for two years now, did fall relatively silent when it comes to analysis.

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LEBANON – Newspaper: At least 18 Lebanese influential figures threatened by assassination

Citing “Al-Joumhouria” daily, the “An-Nahar” newspaper writes that at least 18 Lebanese influential figures are threatened by assassination, almost all of them exclusively belonging to the March 14 political opposition bloc.

A western diplomatic sources speaking on conditions of anonymity told the daily that among those monitored by potential killers are Christian Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Christian MP Boutros Harb, Christian former Minster of Defense Elias al-Murr, Future party (Hariri) Sunnite former Prime Minister and now MP Fouad Siniora, Sunnite director of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) Ashraf Rifi and Christian March 14 Secretary General Fares Souaid as well as a range of Future (Hariri) MP’s.

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