Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon

chemattackPeople on the floor after an alleged gas attack by the Syrian government. (Al Jazeera)

Estimation of the current situation in Lebanon – Part 3 (final)

Today, Sunnites in Lebanon still have no forceful leader with a military background, who could inspire them in a region, where political parties often run militias to promote their cause.

Among the few cards, Lebanese Sunnites could play against Hezbollah, would be an external Sunnite militant leader to take up arms successfully against the Shiite party. But such a man is not in sight.

The last ambitious figure, Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir, was chased away in June in a  combined operation of the Lebanese army and – most likely – Hezbollah.

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LEBANON – Hezbollah’s Russian Connection

Hassan NasrallahHezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah giving a speech on May 9.

DISQUS Comment on: “Hezbollah’s Russian Connection” (Al-Monitor/Jean Aziz)

— “Nasrallah has finally assured his opponents that he is ready for anything now or anytime”

It seems very unlikely he is really ready to go to war and open the box of Pandora. Hassan Nasrallah is too clever a man to subject the whole Levant to a regional conflict.

The next war between Hezbollah and Israel will be the last shoot-out for long, and one of them will fall or at least be severely damaged for a long time. Both sides know that. Israel will turn southern Lebanon into an underground parking lot.

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LIBANON/UN – Hisbollah verweigert Finanzierung des Sondertribunals für Libanon (STL)

Quelle im Umfeld der Hisbollah Organisation: Hisbollah verweigert Finanzierung des Sondertribunals für Libanon (STL) und wird diese Position erneut bestätigen, wenn das Thema im Kabinett diskutiert wird. (An Nahar)

Analyse: Beobachter erwarten in den kommenden Tagen und Wochen größere Konfrontationen zwischen Hisbollah und Premierminister Najib Mikati, der sich öffentlich und international für die Finanzierung des STL ausgesprochen hat, an dem Libanon laut Resolution 1757 des UN-Sicherheitsrats 49 Prozent des Gesamtbudgets tragen muss.

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