Category Archives: Estimation

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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allies to foesOnce allies, now foes: Turkish PM Erdogan and Syrian President Assad. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 3

Assad does not need to negotiate
Questions arise why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad does not want to negotiate with the opposition and is so adamant. Our reading is simple: Given the odds he was facing since two years, his stance did work relatively well for him, and now he does not have to negotiate anymore seriously, though he might send representatives to a future conference.

The strategic balance in Syria is shifting significantly to his side, and outside powers are becoming even more reluctant to hinder him go after his foes.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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derserted street in TripoliA deserted street in Tripoli during fighting between Alawites and Sunnites. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 2

Not happy with Hezbollah
People in Lebanon – many Shiites among them – are not content and even angry about Hezbollah´s role in Syria. But they can’t or don’t want to get rid of the organization for several reasons.

Many Shiites depend on Hezbollah, and the others just have no serious means to confront the organisation or are bound in political affiliations. Though, the latter may be in flux as some recent moves of Christian leader Michel Aoun suggest, who signed a Memorandung of Understanding with Hezbollah.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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Qusayr snapshotA Syrian army tank firing rounds in the battle for Qusayr. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 1

Qusayr
The battlefield situation in Qusayr, Syria, remains unclear. Some circumstantial  conclusion can be drawn from news reports. The recent overall coverage of developments by pro-opposition media outside the country is very telling, just as reactions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) command.

Realities reloaded for the media
Since some weeks, pro-opposition media in Europe and the US are tuning down their war drums. Western commentators, who tried to push through an agenda of regime change and intervention for two years now, did fall relatively silent when it comes to analysis.

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ISRAEL/SYRIA – Warning Syria (Jerusalem Post)

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mount hermonScreenshot taken from JN1.TV

DISQUS comment on: “Warning Syria” (Jerusalem Post)

“Following reported Israeli attacks, forces seem to be concentrating to threaten relative quiet that has characterized Syrian border.” (JPost)

Estimation: It is difficult to believe that the Assad government will open another front now.

The Syrian government – by all public accounts – seems to stand at the beginning of the winning street.

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LEBANON – Possible terror warning at Beirut airport

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Al-Akhbar: Western intelligence agency did warn Lebanese counterparts of possible impending chemical attack on ventilation system of Rafik Hariri International Airport.

Authorities are searching for suspected perpetrator of Pakistani origin, whose sketch has also been handed to Lebanese authorities.

Maintenance companies urged to be on the watch. (Al-Akhbar/An-Nahar)

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