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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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protest against king abdullah of jordanOpposition groups protest in Jordan on October 5, 2012. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 4

Jordan´s strains
Jordan feels the strains of the Syrian situation as well. Throughout its history, the kingdom did steadily and carefully adjust to changing situations, constantly balancing pressure from bigger Arab countries and the West.

Though the kingdom gave Syrian opposition fighters training ground on limited scales, it did resist demands from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to heavily arm the Syrian opposition.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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allies to foesOnce allies, now foes: Turkish PM Erdogan and Syrian President Assad. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 3

Assad does not need to negotiate
Questions arise why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad does not want to negotiate with the opposition and is so adamant. Our reading is simple: Given the odds he was facing since two years, his stance did work relatively well for him, and now he does not have to negotiate anymore seriously, though he might send representatives to a future conference.

The strategic balance in Syria is shifting significantly to his side, and outside powers are becoming even more reluctant to hinder him go after his foes.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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derserted street in TripoliA deserted street in Tripoli during fighting between Alawites and Sunnites. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 2

Not happy with Hezbollah
People in Lebanon – many Shiites among them – are not content and even angry about Hezbollah´s role in Syria. But they can’t or don’t want to get rid of the organization for several reasons.

Many Shiites depend on Hezbollah, and the others just have no serious means to confront the organisation or are bound in political affiliations. Though, the latter may be in flux as some recent moves of Christian leader Michel Aoun suggest, who signed a Memorandung of Understanding with Hezbollah.

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Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region

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Qusayr snapshotA Syrian army tank firing rounds in the battle for Qusayr. (Al-Jazeera)

Estimation and outlook on the situation in Syria and the region – Part 1

Qusayr
The battlefield situation in Qusayr, Syria, remains unclear. Some circumstantial  conclusion can be drawn from news reports. The recent overall coverage of developments by pro-opposition media outside the country is very telling, just as reactions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) command.

Realities reloaded for the media
Since some weeks, pro-opposition media in Europe and the US are tuning down their war drums. Western commentators, who tried to push through an agenda of regime change and intervention for two years now, did fall relatively silent when it comes to analysis.

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ISRAEL/SYRIA – Warning Syria (Jerusalem Post)

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mount hermonScreenshot taken from JN1.TV

DISQUS comment on: “Warning Syria” (Jerusalem Post)

“Following reported Israeli attacks, forces seem to be concentrating to threaten relative quiet that has characterized Syrian border.” (JPost)

Estimation: It is difficult to believe that the Assad government will open another front now.

The Syrian government – by all public accounts – seems to stand at the beginning of the winning street.

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LEBANON – Hezbollah’s Russian Connection

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Hassan NasrallahHezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah giving a speech on May 9.

DISQUS Comment on: “Hezbollah’s Russian Connection” (Al-Monitor/Jean Aziz)

— “Nasrallah has finally assured his opponents that he is ready for anything now or anytime”

It seems very unlikely he is really ready to go to war and open the box of Pandora. Hassan Nasrallah is too clever a man to subject the whole Levant to a regional conflict.

The next war between Hezbollah and Israel will be the last shoot-out for long, and one of them will fall or at least be severely damaged for a long time. Both sides know that. Israel will turn southern Lebanon into an underground parking lot.

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SYRIEN – Einschätzung nach Luftangriff Israels auf Syrien

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[tube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTWW5uq4Acw [/tube]

Angriffe Israels auf Syrien werden nach unserer Einschätzung in nächster Zeit nicht zu einem großen Krieg in der Region führen. Die syrische Regierung verteidigt sich wie immer rhetorisch, möchte aber keinen Krieg riskieren, denn sie ist derzeit auf der Gewinnerstraße.

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SYRIEN – “Wie die Welt über Syriens Giftgaseinsätze rätselt”

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DISQUS Kommentar zu: “Wie die Welt über Syriens Giftgaseinsätze rätselt” (WELT Online / Michael Borgstede)

Die Lage ist doch eigentlich ziemlich klar: Niemand traut sich an Syrien heran, weil die Konsequenzen für die gesamte Region unabsehbar wären. Inklusive eines Erstarken militanter Islamisten, die dann das größte Trainingslager der Welt hätten, alle umliegenden Länder mit in Brand stecken und am Ende gut trainiert ihren Terror in den Westen tragen würden.

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SYRIEN – “Geheimgefängnisse: US-Veteranen bauten Folter-Netzwerk im Irak”

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Kommentar zu: Geheimgefängnisse: US-Veteranen bauten Folter-Netzwerk im Irak (Spiegel-Forum, 06. März 2013)

Berichte wie dieser sollten eine Warnung an alle sein, die sich für Training und Bewaffnung von Oppositionskämpfern in Syrien aussprechen.

Allzu oft sind “Freiheitskämpfer” mit dem militärischen Wissen und den Waffen, die der Westen geliefert hat, zur Geißel ihrer Mitmenschen geworden.

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SYRIEN – Kommentar zu: “Al-Qaida und das Machtvakuum in Syriens Blutsumpf (WELT Online / Michael Stürmer)”

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DISQUS Kommentar von uns zum Artikel “Al-Qaida und das Machtvakuum in Syriens Blutsumpf (WELT Online / Michael Stürmer)” – Unser Kommentar ist von der Redaktion der WELT nicht freigegeben worden.

Michael Stürmer: “Wie kann der Westen, ohne Assad zu retten, Syrien in einem Stück erhalten?”

Vermutlich gar nicht.

Angesichts dessen, was mit einem zerfallenden Syrien der gesamten Levante und übrigens Europa droht (Terrorismus), sind die steten Rufe nach Intervention und Waffenlieferungen nicht zu verstehen.

Man fragt sich wirklich, wer die Politiker, die dergleichen fordern, in dieser Hinsicht berät. Solche Rufe zeugen von völliger Unkenntnis der Geschichte und Kultur der Region und Mentalität der Menschen.

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